Menace2Sports NFL Locks: WEEK THREE

Week 2 NFL Record: 1-3

Overall NFL Record: 4-4

All Sports Picks Record: 18-8

Our All Sports Picks record of 18-8 is fantastic. You can look all over the country and won’t find many cappers hitting at a 70% clip consistently. Menace2Sports isn’t here to publish goofy content or throw out random picks just for the sake of betting. We use simulations, analytics, professional opinion, etc. to make solid, disciplined picks so that our followers can make money. Period. 

We maintain that the NFL is one of the toughest sports to beat every year. There is so much talent, great coaching, strange officiating, etc. that a vast majority of the games come down to the 4th quarter where anything can happen. We went 1-3 last week with the Cowboys coming back to win but failing to cover. We also felt great about the Patriots before Cam Newton was stopped at the goal line in the last seconds.

Speaking of the Patriots game, if you follow @M2SPicks on Twitter, you probably saw us tweet about “buying points.” Many online books allow players to buy a point to manipulate the line. For example, the Patriots were 4.5 point underdogs but for a little extra money, you can buy that to 5 or even 6 points for protection. That is our first PRO TIP for the week. Buy the points if you do not feel comfortable. 

Here are your week 3 NFL Menace Locks:

Lock #1 – Miami at Jacksonville ML (-155)

At Menace, we don’t believe in taking short favorites to cover spreads. Swallow the extra few bucks and take the moneyline which means Jacksonville just has to win straight up. Very similar to buying points, this is our second PRO TIP of the week. You don’t want to ruin your night watching Miami put a meaningless one in the end zone and kick in the back door for a loss. Jacksonville can get a home win to improve to 2-1. Offensive Coordinator Jay Gruden has Gardner Minshew playing well. Take the Jags to win this ball game straight up.

Lock #2CINCINNATI (+6.5) at Philadelphia

We are 2-0 playing the Bengals and Joe Burrow. Good teams, great teams cover is an old gambling adage; right now, the Bengals are great. We get them again as a solid underdog against a team that simply hasn’t proven their value. The public thinks Philadelphia is good and the Bengals are bad. Right now, Philadelphia hasn’t shown us anything that would make us think they can cover a 6.5 point spread. Meanwhile, Joe Burrow and the Bengals have had 10 days of rest knowing they have a big chance to get their first win of the year. Take the points with Joe Burrow who looks about as nervous as Ron Jeremy before the shower scene.

Lock #3 – Green Bay at New Orleans ML (-155)

Another opportunity to take the Moneyline for the home team in a big Primetime game. The Saints defense got worn out by Darren Waller (who?). CantGuardMike is still out but look for the Saints to finish the job at home vs Green Bay. Here’s a stat: in the last 9 seasons, the Saints are 3-15 ATS in weeks 1 and 2. However, they are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games in weeks 3 and 4. The Packers have looked dangerous this year, but we are not betting against New Orleans at home, at night, coming off a loss.

Lock #4Kansas City (+4)  at Baltimore

AFC Championship Game in Week 3? Most likely, yes. These two teams are simply the best in the conference. Lamar Jackson and company look great, sure. But, now we are getting Patrick Mahomes and more than a field goal. After Harrison Butker’s heroic performance last week, the Chiefs have now won 11 straight games including last season and, before that close victory, 7 straight games by double figures. We see Kansas City playing a much better game this week and having enough in the tank to cover the 4 points. They overlooked the Chargers and still won. They will be ready to go on Monday Night Football.

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