Month: April 2020

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Betting- Over/Under Win Totals in the Big Ten

As the US continues with a national emergency and all sports are cancelled, degenerates are still finding ways to lose money. According to William Hill Sportsbook in Vegas, they are taking a decent amount of action on Russian Table Tennis; this is not a drill. Many of us are guilty of wagering on teams that we’ve never even watched before, but Covid-19 has taken some bettors into a new paradigm of problem gambling. 

However, as sports leagues are devising plans to get their seasons started back up in the coming months, Menace2Sports has you covered (pun entirely intended). As we get closer to sports, and particularly college football, we are hoping you check back regularly for gambling insider info. During #CoronaBreak2020, we have put together several resources to get you prepared to crush your sportsbook in the near future.

First up: the over/under win totals for the Big Ten. Wagering on season win totals takes patience. However, it is a lot safer than getting backdoored when your team is winning by four touchdowns before they put in the walk-ons and give up a meaningless score because the coach who is getting blown out still has the starters in to try to make the score look respectable. And your wife wonders why you just yelled at the TV during a 28-point game.

It is smart to approach future bets similar to stocks, knowing that you need to be patient and watch your money increase over time. The reason why sports betting is much safer than stocks is almost everything in the sports world is available to the public. You can read up on a team, watch the film, do your research and sometimes even get inside info. 

Note: in most cases, season win total wagers only pay even money or a little less. Doesn’t seem to make much sense (or dollars, for that matter) to bet 10 bucks just to try to make 20 a half year later. But if you think a team could be great or terrible, load up, enjoy the season, and then collect! And without further ado:

Ohio State (11 Wins) – Take the over. It is almost a lock. Even if they win 11, it’s still a push and you get some money back. Conference Championship games and bowl games count. Ohio State will have the best offense in the country. They will have a chip on their shoulder. Jim Tressel and Urban Meyer both won National Championships in year two at OSU. If the season goes like they hope, Ohio State will play 15 games. You will literally need to score 40 points to beat the Buckeyes. OHIO STATE HAS WON 11 GAMES OR MORE IN ALL OF THE LAST 8 SEASONS. 

Penn State (9.5 wins) – Once again, the OVER. Penn State returns their QB, several weapons on offense, and the best defensive player in the country. Road games include at Virginia Tech, at Michigan, at Indiana, at Nebraska, and at Rutgers. Expect them to play some tough games with a sweat, but they will get to double digit wins even if it takes a bowl victory to get there. 

Wisconsin (9.5 wins) – Take the UNDER with Wisconsin. They had a remarkable season last year and still only won 10 games. They lose Jonathan Taylor and several other weapons. We will find out how good Jack Coan is without them. Wisconsin opens with a challenge vs Indiana and later travels to Michigan in week 4 (revenge game for Michigan) right before a week 5 matchup with Notre Dame. In an improving Big Ten West, Wisconsin takes a step back.

Michigan (9 wins) – UNDER, but it will likely push with a bowl win. Notice Michigan does not have a .5 (a hook) after their win total. Michigan is just good enough to win 9 games\. Jim Harbaugh averages 9.33 repeating wins in his five years at Michigan. That’s just who they are. However, winning more than 9 is going to be very tough. They open at Washington, have two cupcakes, and then play Wisconsin and Penn State at home before going to East Lansing and Minnesota. All back to back to back to back. The schedule softens up enough for Harbaugh and Gattis to win the fan base back before they finish the regular season in Columbus. We predict Michigan will win 8 regular season games and then wipe someone bad in a bowl game to push the total at 9 wins. The under bet is safe because you will likely get your money back in the worst case. Betting against “9 Win U.”

Minnesota (9 wins) – Take the OVER. The Gophers went 11-2 last year. They lose Tyler Johnson and Antoine Winfield to the NFL, but they return Tanner Morgan and Rashod Bateman. Assuming they can beat Iowa at home week 3, Minnesota should open the season 5-0. Meaning that in order for you to at least get your money back, they would only have to finish 4-4. We believe they can steal a big win vs Michigan, Wisconsin, etc. that will get them over the hump. There’s great value in the Gophers. 

Indiana (7.5 wins) – Cash the OVER. Warning: you are probably starting 0-1 with them opening at Wisconsin who they never beat. However, they will be solid favorites in their next 5 games before playing MSU and PSU at home. Michael Penix Jr. is heading for a breakout season. They were a fluke ending in the bowl game away from winning 10 games last year without him. Cash out with the Hoosiers. This is one of our most confident plays.

Iowa (7 wins) – STAY CLEAR/NO BET. This looks like a trap line. Iowa won 10 games last year. Initially, it seems like easy money to take the cover. However, when something looks too good to be true, it usually is. Does Vegas know something that we don’t know? They graduate their QB and their best defensive player. Looking forward, Iowa will be an underdog in all of their road games (at Minny, at OSU, at PSU, at Illinois, at Purdue). It seems that they will have several tossup games at home. Gun to my head, I’m taking the under. But the final reason to stay clear is to save yourself the boredom of watching Iowa football. Even if they made it so all sports were cancelled for Coronavirus except Iowa football, I still couldn’t watch it!

Nebraska (6.5 wins) – UNDER again. Nebraska has won 4 games and 5 games in Scott Frost’s first two seasons respectively. They have another tough schedule coming up with Purdue week one and Cincinnati week four. Looking at the schedule initially, we only saw two games (South Dakota State and Rutgers) that we counted as sure wins. Central Michigan is week 2 and they won the MAC last year, be careful. They didn’t do anything in year one or two that leads us to believe much will change. 

Northwestern (5.5 wins) – UNDER again. Pat Fitzgerald had the Wildcats in the Big Ten Championship just two seasons ago. But last year, they went 3-9 overall and 1-8 in the Big Ten. Like Nebraska, we simply didn’t see anything that led us to believe much would be different this year. However, we also didn’t assume they would go from West Champs to 1-8 so the Wildcats are tough to figure out. They open with a complete tossup at MSU week one. We strongly believe that outcome will play a huge factor in their win total.

Illinois (5 wins) – OVER. With caution. Bowl eligible last year and a returning QB, Illinois will be a double-digit favorite in their first four games. They have a great chance to start 4-0. So, Vegas is banking on Illinois finishing 1-7 and not making a bowl game? The end of their season is absolutely brutal. They won’t be favored in hardly any games. However, we think they can get at least one of their last eight games to get to at least a push. They aren’t going to lose to Illinois State, Connecticut, Bowling Green or Rutgers to start the season, are they? Illinois looks safe to at least push.

Purdue (5 wins) – UNDER. Even though they are getting Rondale Moore back, Purdue’s schedule is an absolute gauntlet. Their non-conference is Memphis, Air Force, and at Boston College. They literally have one guaranteed win and that is Rutgers. Purdue could be a good football team and still not win 5 games. Who is responsible for making that schedule?

Michigan State (4.5 wins) – UNDER. Michigan State was a steady top fifteen program in the country just a few years back. Now they are an absolute dumpster fire. The Spartans did go 7-6 last year but they are another team with a tough schedule. They are at BYU, Toledo at home, and the Miami Hurricanes at home for the non-conference. Then they have to deal with the Big Ten East. Vegas isn’t lying; the Spartans are bad and it’s going to take a while for them.

Maryland (3.5 wins) – UNDER. It seems disrespectful to say a team with a prominent name and location like Maryland won’t get four wins. But the truth of the matter is they have two guaranteed wins in Towson and Rutgers (both at home). After that, they won’t be favored in any contest. They will be a punching bag in the Big Ten East once again.

Rutgers (2.5 wins) – UNDER. Rutgers will beat Monmouth College to open the season and then lose the rest of their games. That’s all there is to it.

by: Julian Thomas

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Quarantine Recruiting- A Look at the Big Ten’s Commits

This year, recruiting in college football is looking extremely different compared to previous years. Due to COVID-19 putting the world on pause all face-to-face interactions have been suspended.  While it’s unknown when things will get back to normalcy, recruiting in the college football world hasn’t slowed down one bit. Although face-to-face interactions have been prohibited, coaches and recruits are keeping in contact through social media, phone calls, texts, FaceTime, etc. Let’s take a look at how your favorite team in the Big Ten is recruiting during the national pandemic

Illinois – B1G Rank, No. 14

As of now, the Lovie Smith’s Fighting Illini is dead last in the Big Ten in recruiting for the 2021 class. Their lone commit Samari Collier is a dual-threat quarterback that hails from Desoto, Texas. His composite ranking is .8336.

Indiana – B1G Rank, No. 11

The Hoosiers may be at No.11 now, but when the 2021 class fills out, it could be one of their best yet. They have five commits, and their top-rated player Cooper Jones (DE) from Valparaiso, IN has a composite score of .8839.

Iowa – B1G Rank, No. 4

Kirk Ferentz and the Hawkeyes are in a great position at the No. 4 spot. To no surprise, they have nine commits, with OG Connor Colby from Cedar Rapids, IA being their top recruit. Colby’s composite score is .9154 and they also have two athletes in Justin Sullivan and Cooper DeJean that have the makeup to be instant impact players.

Maryland – B1G Rank, No. 3

Last season didn’t go as planned for the Terps, but head man Mike Locksley is making waves in recruiting for the 2021 class. Maryland has ten total commits, and to no surprise, this class is headlined by four DMV natives Demiioun Robinson and Taizse Johnson, Antwain Littleton, and ZionAngelo Shockley. Robinson, who has a composite score of .9763 is the highest rated out of the group. At this rate, Locksley and his staff are on the path to take the next step in the Big Ten. Look out.

Michigan – B1G Rank, No. 6

If you look at James T. Yoder’s and former All-American Jourdan Lewis’ twitter pages, it will tell you that Michigan isn’t doing well at recruiting. In year five, Harbaugh continues to show that he is not the elite recruiter that he needs to be for Michigan to become an elite program. While it’s still early, Michigan has seven commits, highlighted by five-star J.J. McCarthy who has a whopping composite score of .9899.  One interesting thing to pay attention to with the 2021 class is how the state of Michigan is recruited.  With Giovanni El-Hadi committing in April of 2019, the Wolverines seemed like they were in a prime position own the state. Since then, it’s been quiet with recruiting the home state up until Detroit Cass Tech’s Raheem Anderson pledged his commitment to the Wolverines. Anderson’s commitment ended a drought where the Wolverines did not have an in-state commit in over a year for the 2021 class.

Michigan State – B1G Rank, No. 13

Head coach Mel Tucker got a late start as he was hired a few months ago. Tucker is taking a page out of Mark Dantonio’s book in recruiting three-star recruits with the focus on coaching them up to maximize their potential. The 2021 class is highlighted by hometown hero OT Ethan Boyd, who has a .8577 composite score. Given the state of MSU football, I don’t see the 2021 class making much improvement. This rebuilding process will take longer than what many expect, but will Tucker get the time to get the job done?

Minnesota – B1G Rank, No. 8

The boats are still rowing in Minnesota after an 11-win season and they are using that momentum in recruiting the 2021 class. The Gophers have eight commits highlighted by dual-threat quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis, who’s composite score is .9013

Nebraska – B1G Rank, No. 9

Last year didn’t go as planned for Scott Frost, but in recruiting he is making his mark. Frost’s 2020 class was No.4 in the B1G, and now they are No.9 with just four commits, highlighted by ATH Randolph Kpai who’s composite score is .9300. The Cornhuskers will get a wave of commits within a few months and that would likely put them in the top 5 in the conference.

Northwestern – B1G Rank, No. 12

Pat Fitzgerald and the Wildcats are in familiar territory at No.12. This class is highlighted by in-state LB Mac Uihlein and Michigan’s own Caleb Tiernan, who have composite scores of .9050 and .9005 respectively.

Ohio State – B1G Rank, No. 1

It seems like Director of Player of Personnel Mark Pantoni is tweeting out “BOOM” every second. While it may appear that way, it’s evident that Ryan Day & Co. are far and away the best team in the B1G when it comes to recruiting. The 2021 class is highlighted by DE Jack Sawyer, who’s composite score of .9987. In addition to Sawyer, fellow five-star recruits TreVeyon Henderson (RB), Kyle McCord (QB) are big-time gets and to no surprise, the Buckeyes are in the mix to get a few more five-star recruits. The Buckeyes are the epitome of the saying “the rich get richer” as they have 11 top 100 commits, which is more than the SEC, ACC, B1G, Pac-12, and Big 12.

Penn State – B1G Rank, No. 7

James Franklin has been a recruiting dynamo at Penn State and in 2021 that will continue to be the trend. As of now, they are No.7, but with only 7 commits, they will rise in the rankings. Franklin and his staff are doing his usual damage in the DMV as the class is highlighted by OT Landon Tengwall who’s composite score is .9771. On top of that, Franklin is starting to plant flags in Detroit as he got three commits from Jalen Reed, Kobe, and Kalen King, who are all players that held offers from just about every Big Ten school.

Purdue – B1G Rank, No. 10

Jeff Brohm and the Boilermakers are sitting at No. 10, but they will jump a few spots. As of now, the only have five commits, which is highlighted by their newest commit Bryon Threats who has a composite score of .8627. Purdue is sneaky when it comes to recruiting and given the success with their past two classes, they will have a few sleepers from Detroit, and other surrounding areas in the Midwest to round out their class.

Rutgers – B1G Rank, No. 5

Greg Schiano isn’t playing games as Scarlet Knights are No. 5 in the conference. While they may not stay that high, it has to be positive to see them not associated with being in last place in any aspect. This class is highlighted by in-state talent Khayri Banton (LB), who has a composite score of .9013.

Wisconsin – B1G Rank, No. 2

The Wisconsin Badgers aren’t a sexy program, they just do everything the right way. Whether it’s their style of play or the way they recruit, they do it with a blue-collar approach. The Badgers is usually a top-five program in the conference when it comes to recruiting and that will likely remain the case for the 2021 class. This Badgers class has the makings of being a special one as it is highlighted by OT JP Benzschawel whose composite score is .9446.

by: Ron Hampston

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KJ Hill, A Rough Draft…

Michael Thomas, Terry Glenn, David Boston, Michael Jenkins, Santonio Holmes, Ted Ginn Jr., Joey Galloway and Cris Carter. What do all these players have in common? Captain obvious response: all Buckeye great receivers who have gone on to fantastic careers in the NFL. More in-depth response: while Ohio State has been a wide receiver factory over the last 30 years, none of these players caught more passes in college than KJ Hill. 

Quez Watkins, James Proche, Dezmon Patmon, Darnell Mooney, Isaiah Coulter, and John Hightower. What do you all these dudes have in common? Simple response: no clue because you’ve probably never heard of any of them. The truth: all are wide receivers who were drafted ahead of KJ Hill in the 2020 NFL Draft.

Not throwing shade at the guys mentioned, of course. Menace2Sports is here for the culture and we hope each of them go on to have tremendous professional careers. However, we are also here for keeping it 100 thousand and KJ falling into the 7th round is absurd. 

He wasn’t even the first guy named KJ drafted. Hell, he wasn’t even the first receiver named KJ drafted. Penn State’s KJ Hamler caught a little over one fourth of the balls KJ Hill caught in college, though. No big deal. At least his weekend was better than KJ Un’s. Too soon?

ProFootballFocus had KJ Hill listed as the 73rd prospect in the draft. He ended up 220th. To be clear, the Chargers picked up a high 3rd rounder in the 7th. Good for them, I guess.

Many questioned his 40 time (4.60) at the combine. Ironically, two of the premier WRs in the NFL ran a very similar time; Michael Thomas and DeAndre Hopkins both ran a 4.57. Are we suggesting KJ is the next Hopkins, of course not. But it is food for thought.

And like these two high volume receivers, KJ has hands and he gets open. He was open in the Big Ten. He was open against Clemson. And more interestingly, he was open against Marshon Lattimore, Eli Apple, Denzel Ward, Gareon Conley, Damon Arnette, Jeff Okudah, etc. at practice the last few years. So we are falling in love with these Buckeye corners but not the players who are having success against them regularly?

The silver lining for KJ is he was selected to move to Los Angeles and compete for a spot in an offense that thrives in the short passing game. He’s going to be just fine.

Of course, Buckeye receivers have been passed over recently and gone on to prove their value. Exhibit A: THE aforementioned Michael Thomas. CantGuardMike owns numerous NFL records including most receptions in a season and most receiving yards for a player in their first four seasons. Simply put: he’s goated. However, here are the players selected before him in 2016: Corey Coleman, Will Fuller, Josh Doctson, Laquon Treadwell and Sterling Shepard (Insert Homer Simpson hiding in the shrubs gif here).

Just last year, Terry McLaurin led NFL rookies in receptions and was second in receiving yards. He would’ve likely led comfortably in both but he missed two games with injury. Heading into the season, ESPN talking heads were labeling McLaurin a career special teams guy. However, Terry spent his rookie Sundays in the endzone flexing. 

KJ Hill’s 201 career catches at Ohio State is a record that’s going to be safe for a while. He is also 6th in receiving yards and 6th in touchdowns. Until the controversial loss to Clemson in the national semifinal, Ohio State was undefeated in games that KJ caught a touchdown. 

When thinking of a pinnacle career moment, was it the game winning touchdown at Penn State his junior year? Or was it the back to back touchdowns his senior year in the Big Ten Championship game? The one-handed snag vs Minnesota? We considered a more simple play:

Last season at Michigan, Ohio State leading 28-16 in the 3rd quarter. Third and goal from the 6. Michigan can get off the field and keep it a two score game. OSU lines up in bunch and isolates KJ on Josh Metellus. KJ stems him and up, bullies him, and safely secures another clutch TD. Ball Game. Guess which player was drafted first, smdh…

Check with the Ohio State coaches or ask Buckeye Nation, KJ Hill is one of the most beloved of his generation. And as the myriad of NFL Buckeyes continue to show out on Sundays, will KJ be the next one? That will be up to him. 

Until then, get those Homer Simpson gifs ready.

by: Julian Thomas