Betting- Over/Under Win Totals in the Big Ten

As the US continues with a national emergency and all sports are cancelled, degenerates are still finding ways to lose money. According to William Hill Sportsbook in Vegas, they are taking a decent amount of action on Russian Table Tennis; this is not a drill. Many of us are guilty of wagering on teams that we’ve never even watched before, but Covid-19 has taken some bettors into a new paradigm of problem gambling. 

However, as sports leagues are devising plans to get their seasons started back up in the coming months, Menace2Sports has you covered (pun entirely intended). As we get closer to sports, and particularly college football, we are hoping you check back regularly for gambling insider info. During #CoronaBreak2020, we have put together several resources to get you prepared to crush your sportsbook in the near future.

First up: the over/under win totals for the Big Ten. Wagering on season win totals takes patience. However, it is a lot safer than getting backdoored when your team is winning by four touchdowns before they put in the walk-ons and give up a meaningless score because the coach who is getting blown out still has the starters in to try to make the score look respectable. And your wife wonders why you just yelled at the TV during a 28-point game.

It is smart to approach future bets similar to stocks, knowing that you need to be patient and watch your money increase over time. The reason why sports betting is much safer than stocks is almost everything in the sports world is available to the public. You can read up on a team, watch the film, do your research and sometimes even get inside info. 

Note: in most cases, season win total wagers only pay even money or a little less. Doesn’t seem to make much sense (or dollars, for that matter) to bet 10 bucks just to try to make 20 a half year later. But if you think a team could be great or terrible, load up, enjoy the season, and then collect! And without further ado:

Ohio State (11 Wins) – Take the over. It is almost a lock. Even if they win 11, it’s still a push and you get some money back. Conference Championship games and bowl games count. Ohio State will have the best offense in the country. They will have a chip on their shoulder. Jim Tressel and Urban Meyer both won National Championships in year two at OSU. If the season goes like they hope, Ohio State will play 15 games. You will literally need to score 40 points to beat the Buckeyes. OHIO STATE HAS WON 11 GAMES OR MORE IN ALL OF THE LAST 8 SEASONS. 

Penn State (9.5 wins) – Once again, the OVER. Penn State returns their QB, several weapons on offense, and the best defensive player in the country. Road games include at Virginia Tech, at Michigan, at Indiana, at Nebraska, and at Rutgers. Expect them to play some tough games with a sweat, but they will get to double digit wins even if it takes a bowl victory to get there. 

Wisconsin (9.5 wins) – Take the UNDER with Wisconsin. They had a remarkable season last year and still only won 10 games. They lose Jonathan Taylor and several other weapons. We will find out how good Jack Coan is without them. Wisconsin opens with a challenge vs Indiana and later travels to Michigan in week 4 (revenge game for Michigan) right before a week 5 matchup with Notre Dame. In an improving Big Ten West, Wisconsin takes a step back.

Michigan (9 wins) – UNDER, but it will likely push with a bowl win. Notice Michigan does not have a .5 (a hook) after their win total. Michigan is just good enough to win 9 games\. Jim Harbaugh averages 9.33 repeating wins in his five years at Michigan. That’s just who they are. However, winning more than 9 is going to be very tough. They open at Washington, have two cupcakes, and then play Wisconsin and Penn State at home before going to East Lansing and Minnesota. All back to back to back to back. The schedule softens up enough for Harbaugh and Gattis to win the fan base back before they finish the regular season in Columbus. We predict Michigan will win 8 regular season games and then wipe someone bad in a bowl game to push the total at 9 wins. The under bet is safe because you will likely get your money back in the worst case. Betting against “9 Win U.”

Minnesota (9 wins) – Take the OVER. The Gophers went 11-2 last year. They lose Tyler Johnson and Antoine Winfield to the NFL, but they return Tanner Morgan and Rashod Bateman. Assuming they can beat Iowa at home week 3, Minnesota should open the season 5-0. Meaning that in order for you to at least get your money back, they would only have to finish 4-4. We believe they can steal a big win vs Michigan, Wisconsin, etc. that will get them over the hump. There’s great value in the Gophers. 

Indiana (7.5 wins) – Cash the OVER. Warning: you are probably starting 0-1 with them opening at Wisconsin who they never beat. However, they will be solid favorites in their next 5 games before playing MSU and PSU at home. Michael Penix Jr. is heading for a breakout season. They were a fluke ending in the bowl game away from winning 10 games last year without him. Cash out with the Hoosiers. This is one of our most confident plays.

Iowa (7 wins) – STAY CLEAR/NO BET. This looks like a trap line. Iowa won 10 games last year. Initially, it seems like easy money to take the cover. However, when something looks too good to be true, it usually is. Does Vegas know something that we don’t know? They graduate their QB and their best defensive player. Looking forward, Iowa will be an underdog in all of their road games (at Minny, at OSU, at PSU, at Illinois, at Purdue). It seems that they will have several tossup games at home. Gun to my head, I’m taking the under. But the final reason to stay clear is to save yourself the boredom of watching Iowa football. Even if they made it so all sports were cancelled for Coronavirus except Iowa football, I still couldn’t watch it!

Nebraska (6.5 wins) – UNDER again. Nebraska has won 4 games and 5 games in Scott Frost’s first two seasons respectively. They have another tough schedule coming up with Purdue week one and Cincinnati week four. Looking at the schedule initially, we only saw two games (South Dakota State and Rutgers) that we counted as sure wins. Central Michigan is week 2 and they won the MAC last year, be careful. They didn’t do anything in year one or two that leads us to believe much will change. 

Northwestern (5.5 wins) – UNDER again. Pat Fitzgerald had the Wildcats in the Big Ten Championship just two seasons ago. But last year, they went 3-9 overall and 1-8 in the Big Ten. Like Nebraska, we simply didn’t see anything that led us to believe much would be different this year. However, we also didn’t assume they would go from West Champs to 1-8 so the Wildcats are tough to figure out. They open with a complete tossup at MSU week one. We strongly believe that outcome will play a huge factor in their win total.

Illinois (5 wins) – OVER. With caution. Bowl eligible last year and a returning QB, Illinois will be a double-digit favorite in their first four games. They have a great chance to start 4-0. So, Vegas is banking on Illinois finishing 1-7 and not making a bowl game? The end of their season is absolutely brutal. They won’t be favored in hardly any games. However, we think they can get at least one of their last eight games to get to at least a push. They aren’t going to lose to Illinois State, Connecticut, Bowling Green or Rutgers to start the season, are they? Illinois looks safe to at least push.

Purdue (5 wins) – UNDER. Even though they are getting Rondale Moore back, Purdue’s schedule is an absolute gauntlet. Their non-conference is Memphis, Air Force, and at Boston College. They literally have one guaranteed win and that is Rutgers. Purdue could be a good football team and still not win 5 games. Who is responsible for making that schedule?

Michigan State (4.5 wins) – UNDER. Michigan State was a steady top fifteen program in the country just a few years back. Now they are an absolute dumpster fire. The Spartans did go 7-6 last year but they are another team with a tough schedule. They are at BYU, Toledo at home, and the Miami Hurricanes at home for the non-conference. Then they have to deal with the Big Ten East. Vegas isn’t lying; the Spartans are bad and it’s going to take a while for them.

Maryland (3.5 wins) – UNDER. It seems disrespectful to say a team with a prominent name and location like Maryland won’t get four wins. But the truth of the matter is they have two guaranteed wins in Towson and Rutgers (both at home). After that, they won’t be favored in any contest. They will be a punching bag in the Big Ten East once again.

Rutgers (2.5 wins) – UNDER. Rutgers will beat Monmouth College to open the season and then lose the rest of their games. That’s all there is to it.

by: Julian Thomas

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